Because You Give a Crap: My Oscar 2010 Predictions

I sat down tonight and made out my little ballot sheet for the Oscars later this month, something I've done every year since I was 14. I don't think the Oscars are infallible, I don't think they're perfect, they get as much wrong as they get right, but I'm a sucker for them and what else am I supposed to predict? NCAA tournaments? That's for losers. Movie awards shows is where the cool kids eat lunch.

And since I'm also bored tonight, I decided to share my picks with you, the person silly enough to click this link. Sucks for you, now you have to finish reading. I hate sports, but I'm going to use a ton of sports metaphors in here.

DISCLAIMER: I liked Avatar. I thought it was fun, in a completely generic way. The tech is phenomenal, but as a film it is sorely lacking. Don't expect it to get much love in here.

Here goes:

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
An Education
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
UP
Up in the Air

What's that? Pssh, no The Blind Side wasn't nominated. What crazy alternate world are you living in?

Anyway, the 10 nominees this year has seriously thrown off my barometer, so I'm giving myself a handicap this year and doing a 50/50 pick of Inglourious Basterds or The Hurt Locker. It's going to be one of those, as well it should be, as both films are terrific. I might make it more of a 60/40 in favor of Basterds, though, because as a piece of cinema it is damn near unparalleled for what it brings to the table. I don't have the space to go into it here, but suffice to say you could use Basterds as a launching pad for a really awesome film theory course.

I wish UP, the second ever animated film to get this nomination, were more of a contender, but like District 9, just getting nominated is a win. It also makes you wonder how many other Pixar films were thiiiis close to getting it back when there were only 5. Up in the Air has terrific performances, but in the weeks since seeing the film I'm not sure how it all comes together at the end. Its lasting impact was more a dent, so to speak. What's An Education? A movie where Carey Mulligan gets to kickstart her career, evidently. I feel like an asshole for not seeing A Serious Man yet, since I am beholden to the Brothers Coen, but, well, I haven't seen A Serious Man. For tonight's purposes, though, it doesn't matter.

Avatar is not the Best Picture of the year. It's impressive, yes, it made more money than Scrooge McDuck, but it is not and will not win Best Picture. Why? Cause the Academy already gave Dances With Wolves an Oscar. I know, I'm not the first one to make that crack and yes, it's reductive, but when Wes Studi is your Blue Man Chief (group), it's kind of hard not to think Cameron took the easy peasy lemon squeezy way out.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

It's time to make some history, something the Academy loves doing. A woman has never won this award (and this is only the second or third time a woman has even been nominated...what? No, this town loves women!) And I'm actually OK with them bundling making a statement with someone who is obviously talented and who put out a film that is almost 100% about her talents as a director. In lesser hands, The Hurt Locker is another episode of Generation: Kill.

If it goes to someone else, it will to to either Tarantino or Cameron. I can see maybe a split happening--Bigelow takes this while Basterds takes Picture, but not a split for Bigelow/Cameron (although that would make for some great "fuck you" stares between the two). The only way I can see Cameron taking it (again, highly unlikely--Bigelow won the DGA and they almost never miss) is if people are really that bedazzled by the advances he spearheaded in motion capture. Keep in mind I said "advance", not "revolutionized." He and his team of tech guys took the next step with the technology, which is great and commendable but like John Hammond, they were standing on the shoulders of other geniuses. As such, the two directors who took their audience and played them less like a tuba and more like a finely tuned violin are the horses to watch.

Lee Daniels gets the "welcome to the party, pal...now show us what you can really do" slot. Does he pull a Scorsese and go for broke, only getting better with time? Does he follow Gus Van Sant, where he does a couple interesting but safe studio flicks before retreating back to SuperIndieLand? Or does he depress everyone and go the John Singleton route and direct a Fast & the Furious sequel? I'm hoping for the first choice, I love it when new talent keeps growing.

Speaking of growing, Reitman needs to. I think unless his next film is a home run instead of a solid double, this is his last trip to the nomination table. The guy's evident raging ego aside, he's a real talent, and hopefully his next outing will bring it home in a big way. I guess I just didn't feel the cathartic final note in Up in the Air like I did in the closing shot of Juno. Perhaps that's just me.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

I feel like such an underachiever. The only performances I've seen here was Clooney and Renner, both of whom were amazing. I know I've kind of dismissed Up in the Air so far, but that was the film as a whole, which is good, but didn't WOW me. Clooney, though, was on fire, and reminded me just how far he's come since being a walking hunk of a bobblehead on ER. Renner takes a role that almost asks to be played like a walking talking badass, like an early 90's Keanu Reeves, and instead fills it with a potent, fragile rage that's being barely contained behind a wall, a wall that is starting to show its cracks. It's layered, it's dangerous, and it's amazing, and if you ask me, it's the one I'd look for to pull an upset if there is one.

I've heard great things about A Single Man, but Firth is not the one this year, but if he keeps churning out quality instead of being this decade's Hugh Grant (quick aside: where the fuck did Hugh Grant go? I remember him doing some movie last year where he co-starred with a horse...damn shame). Freeman got nominated because he's Freeman and he's playing Nelson Mandela, and just that as a logline was enough to get him nominated.

And that brings us to one of my favorite actors period, Mr. Jeff "The Dude" Lebow...Bridges. This is his fifth time at bat, it's for what I've heard is a career best performance (which is a tall, Sam Elliot-sized order), and it's just speculation on my part, but maybe the voters are feeling a little bit bad about denying a thematically similar award for Mickey Rourke last year. But he's been winning awards left and right, including the SAG, but then again, so did Rourke. So, Bridges is my pick, but an upset is possible.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Jesus wept, this is a weak-ass category this year. I honestly don't care about any of these movies; I've got an outside interest in Precious, might catch An Education down the line, but what's The Last Station? It's too old pros being old and British. This is brave new territory. The sad thing is, the two frontrunners are for the two films I really couldn't give less of a shit about.

No one saw Trucker, where Michelle Monaghan kicks a surprisingly deep amount of ass, but everyone saw White Guilt: The Movie, where Bullock is doing her best Erin Brockovich impression. And hey, it got Julia her Oscar, why not let it work a second time? Bullock's the popular favorite, she's well liked in Hollywood...the only thing keeping this from being a lock is Streep. She hasn't won since 1982, and like Hepburn winning for Guess Who's Coming to Dinner after string of only being nominated eight times in a row, Streep might be getting her lifetime achievement award. And from what I hear, her half of Julie & Julia is the most enjoyable, so it might not be undeserved.


To be continued tomorrow, where I go through the supporting categories and the writing noms, where things get difficult difficult lemon difficult.

That Which Was Old Is New Again...Again.

"Nice retro look you've got going."

That's what some random person said to me at the grocery store today. Why'd she say it? Cause I'm wearing a Ghostbusters T-shirt. "Retro?," thought I, "When did Ghostbusters become a retro thing?" And then I reasoned, "Cause Ghostbusters is 25 years old this year. That's like a epoch in the pop culture world." But then, even that stuck with me. Not just that it was bugging me, but WHY it was bugging me.

Cause see, I'm a special kind of geek. I've been wearing Ghostbusters shirts since I was knee high to a grasshopper, and well, I kinda never stopped. Junior high and high school were fun, as I was mercilessly mocked for loving a "kids movie." Of course, these people are idiots, and probably never actually went back and watched it when they were older to discover just how dirty most of the jokes are in that movie, but I digress.

And then it hit me. Do I get to count myself as one of the early pioneers of loving all things 80s? Does this mean that I've unintentionally found myself at the cool kid's table, with everyone copying my jokes, my hair style, my laugh? Does great responsibility come with this great power? And more importantly, how can I use this to get laid?

Of course, the moment passes, as shall the trend of wearing shirts with Ghostbusters or Autobots or G.I. Joe or Tron plastered across the front in a wannabe-ironic weathered fashion. But I'll still be wearing my Stay-Puft Marshmellow Man tee, and then I'll just look out of touch. Until we go post-post-post ironic, when I'm about 38, and my power shall return anew!

But hopefully I'll have gotten laid by then.